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Chinese Cars In The US? Ford’s CEO Thinks So
Tariffs might hold back China, but some experts think soon, they won't be enough
Issue #164
Hello! Today, we discuss how China’s dominance could affect the US in the not-so-distant future.
Plus, GM parts ways with one of its oldest partners!
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In The Know
Are we closer to having Chinese cars in the US?
Here’s a baffling statistic that will soon cease to be. Right now, China has 169 automakers. You read that right: 169 car makers, although “only” 97 of them are entirely Chinese, and the rest are joint efforts.
It was part of the country’s strategy to basically put every citizen in a car, and it has paid off. Still, it has also created some gray areas in sales, as this paid article explains.
There’s no denying that China has created an automotive behemoth that has no global competition. However, it has also shot itself in the foot.
After all, having 169 automakers is just too many, and this has been an escalating problem, as this 2023 article explains.
Now, it’s time for step two of the exercise: after growth comes consolidation, and it won’t be a delicate one. China has excluded EVs from its list of strategic industries for the next five years, as this article explains.
Basically, what this means is that aspects such as subsidies, priority in government spending, and favorable conditions won’t apply to EVs.
The reason for this lack of support is that the country is literally inundated with too many cars.
But why does this matter to the US? China and the United States have historically avoided working directly together. However, there’s a case to be made here.
After the big adjustment, very few brands will survive, because 93 of the automakers in China hold less than 0.1% share each.
So, they were basically disposable to see which one worked. Now, China knows.
It’s most likely that BYD, Geely, XPeng, NIO, Changan, Li Auto, and Xiaomi will survive (among others).
These are brands already established in other major markets, such as Europe and Latin America.
Not only that, but these are the brands that provide technology to other manufacturers, such as Volvo and Ford. In case you don’t remember, this Lincoln SUV sold in the US is now entirely Chinese.
That’s big news, especially because Ford’s CEO Jim Farley isn’t shy about how much he loves driving a Chinese car. There’s an article on Car and Driver of him praising the Xiaomi SU7.
China has no competition when it comes to production capability, and the automotive industry has always respected that.
The problem is that now countries such as Germany are feeling the heat. You see, German automakers once preferred sending some production to China for efficiency. Now, they can’t keep up.
The same could happen in the US.
As Farley has said before, China could put every automaker out of business, including the Big Three.
So, while it seems far-fetched that China will enter the US market directly right now, the pieces are slowly (or rather, quickly) falling into place.
There was a time when Japan sold only a handful of cars in the US. The same happens right now with China.
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