• Four Wheel Trends
  • Posts
  • 🚗 Halfway There–Tariffs Heat Up And Opportunities Ahead

🚗 Halfway There–Tariffs Heat Up And Opportunities Ahead

Six months into 2025, the automotive industry is navigating a rollercoaster, and the outlook is uncertain.

Four Wheel Trends Automotive Newsletter

Issue #127

Hello!

Today, we discuss the rollercoaster that has been the automotive industry in the first six months of 2025.

Additionally, we examine what could happen in the second half of 2025.

Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up and get it for Free!

Market News

Safety and Recalls

Seeking impartial news? Meet 1440.

Every day, 3.5 million readers turn to 1440 for their factual news. We sift through 100+ sources to bring you a complete summary of politics, global events, business, and culture, all in a brief 5-minute email. Enjoy an impartial news experience.

Car Culture

Video Of The Week

Doug DeMuro takes a look at one of the coolest trucks out there.

Save On Car Shipping!

I’ve used UShip twice to take delivery of a Jeep from Idaho and a boat from Florida. Both were great experiences, so I wanted to bring this service to your attention.

👉 Check out UShip here (or click the image)

Yes, that’s an affiliate link. No, it doesn’t cost you anything extra. But every click helps support this newsletter and keeps the content coming. Win-win.

In The Know

🚗 Halfway There–Tariffs Heat Up And Opportunities Ahead

We're already halfway through 2025, and what a semester it has been for the automotive industry. We knew, as soon as the year started, that it would bring change, but it's fascinating how predictions behaved.

This article from December of last year, 2024, had a bold prediction, especially with EVs, which seems bleaker by the minute. 

This analysis from Car Edge stated that buyers aimed to spend around $30,000 on their cars.

However, the analysis also highlights a critical point: tariffs were coming.

Few, if anyone in the automotive industry had no way of predicting how tariffs would behave. We knew they were coming, but we didn't know how much or when.

Their impact was immediate, but then, it wasn't. You can read more about this here.

The pause was a welcome breather, especially because it gave automakers and buyers a chance to react. And, react, they did, as this article explains. 

In fact, the previous article touches on a topic we hadn't thought about here in FWT. The car-buying rush could've put people under a financial burden, and that's never a good situation to be in, especially for a depreciating asset. 

So, let's take a closer look at the panic buying and rushed incentives to answer a question: what has actually happened with automotive sales? 

As this article explains, the SAAR in March 2025 was 17.5 million. 

SAAR stands for seasonally adjusted annual rate, which is how many cars are projected to be sold by the end of the year. It's adjusted periodically.

The impact of tariffs was almost immediate.

By May 2025, the SAAR was 15.6 million, and expectations are that it will be 15.3 million by the end of this month. 

These numbers seem bleak, and we had discussed previously how it was bound to happen. You can read it here.

Additionally, one of the most significantly impacted options will be the $ 30,000 option.

But does that mean it's all negative? It depends on how you view it. 

The incentives and panic buying had a substantial and positive effect on sales. June experienced a 2.5% growth compared to June 2024. 

So, what will happen now that tariffs will resume by July 9?

Automakers might call off incentives in the face of uncertainty. Car buyers could be wary of new prices.

As this article explains, everyone has entered a wait-and-see mode.

Does that mean that car sales will slump in the second half of this year? They will definitely slow down, but even so, projections show that they will be better than last year.

Not only that but as this article explains, the industry has handled this rollercoaster surprisingly well. 

This article showcases a valuable quality: steadiness.

There are some warnings that we should take into consideration. First of all, automakers are only one part of the equation.

There are thousands of component makers that are also affected by this ongoing situation, and they feel the impact directly, as this article explains

Then, there's the big elephant in the room: the consumer. How will this situation impact anyone buying a used car? The average price continues to increase, and it is now $25,000.