Will Volkswagen Disappear?

All the signs point to a potential downfall, but Volkswagen is taking drastic actions to prevent a market collapse. Will they work?

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Four Wheel Trends Automotive Newsletter
Issue #202

Today, we discuss how VW could disappear as we know it, in the next 10 years. 

The brand struggles with products, competition, and ballooning costs. However, some doubt whether the actions are enough.

Or, you can continue to read by scrolling down.

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In The Know

Will Volkswagen Disappear?

Times are challenging at Volkswagen. To some, it might not come as a surprise, but to others, it can be shocking just how bad things are. 

The reality is that once you peel back the layers, you see that the German automaker might not survive, as we know it, within the next decade.

But why is this happening?

In late June, Volkswagen announced that it would streamline its fleet and focus on its best-selling products. You might be wondering just what the hell VW’s best-selling products are. We had the same question, and it turns out the Tiguan and Atlas are their bestsellers here in America. 

You can see which models they sold in 2025 here.

BTW, congratulations on the 28 people who bought the VW Arteon. If you don’t know what an Arteon is, don’t worry. We didn’t either. Here’s more on it.

Streamlining a fleet makes perfect sense because it can unify production and reduce costs. However, that’s not the only action. Unfortunately, VW also plans to take drastic actions in Germany. Reports surfaced that VW plans to cut 28,000 jobs there by 2030. You can read more about these actions here.

Let’s face it, a 10-vehicle lineup in the US is ambitious for a company with little traction here. So, both actions make sense, and VW isn’t the only one doing so. Even Toyota admits it has too many vehicles.

However, Toyota’s problem is different. Or, rather, Toyota is predicting the problem will come, so it takes action now.

In the case of VW, the story of how it got to this place is different.

Volkswagen’s reputation took a serious blow when Dieselgate erupted. We covered the situation here and explained that, basically, everyone cheats on emissions.

However, VW took the worst of it. If you look at this chart, you can see that the company has failed to beat its 2013 sales figures and has barely surpassed its 2014 sales, one year before the scandal.

Now, any automotive company would’ve likely recovered from the diesel emissions scandal. GM managed to navigate a similar one quite well in recent years.

The problem with VW is that this  isn’t the only challenge it has faced. For the past 10 to 20 years, the company has aimed to become a mainstay in the EV market in Europe and China, two of the world's largest markets. For a while, as this article explains, VW had managed to do so with Skoda (in China) and VW/Skoda (in Europe).

However, Chinese automakers stepped up their game after the Pandemic. Not only that,but the Chinese buyer has also changed. Seeing that new, locally produced cars were really cool, they no longer opted for brands such as VW or Audi, as you can read here.

Not only that, but Chinese vehicles are making a name for themselves in Europe. So, VW’s two biggest markets have gone down the Chinese path. This left VW with almost no profit and no sales.

This isn’t the first time VW has faced competition from Asia and a challenging US market. In 1971, as this article recalls, the company needed to change after being too dependent on the Beetle. 

It lost traction in the US and was forced to reinvent itself and target new markets. Now, the opposite is happening: VW is desperate to find a new Beetle, a car that appeals to millions, and it hopes to do so soon.